The food-price inflation in South Africa is not only about the drought

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Agriculture is less than 3% of the economy, making it easy to downplay its importance. But the worst drought since the early 1990s has put farming back on the front pages. The sector is sort of schizophrenic, and the drought mainly affects the summer crops on the nonirrigated side of the divide — maize and sugar. It potentially affects meat too, but good rains in the next couple of weeks could still save grazing lands, and livestock.

For maize, however, it is too late. The planting season has come and gone and, although official crop estimates are due only next Wednesday, the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) at the University of Pretoria expects a total maize crop of just 4.7-million tonnes, far less than half the industry average of about 11.5-million tonnes a year for 2011-15, and than SA’s average consumption of 9.6-million tonnes a year over the period. This means, even taking into account what’s in storage, SA will have only eight months of its staple food, white maize, available — and none in stock for the next season.

Longer-term, if SA is to expand agriculture and agricultural exports and capture their potential to create jobs, farmers will need a more conducive investment environment, and much more policy certainty.