International shipping and aviation emissions goals both “Critically insufficient”

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In its first major assessments of international shipping and aviation, published today, the Climate Action Tracker has rated the 2030 climate targets for both sectors as “Critically insufficient”, and concludes that emissions may continue to rise sharply despite the impact of COVID-19, not least because the actions currently proposed are far too weak.

While the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has a goal of “carbon neutral growth from 2020”, CORSIA, the scheme it has set up to achieve it, is unlikely to do so: it will probably cover less than half of international aviation emissions between now and 2035 and is likely to allow compensation without real emission reductions elsewhere. [see aviation assessment summary - full links below].

As global CO2 emissions would need to reduce to net zero by 2050 to be in line with the 1.5°C temperature limit, aviation would have to make an equivalent contribution. However, CORSIA’s expected emissions unit prices are unlikely to trigger investments in measures to reduce CO2 emissions from international aviation towards zero by 2050, and provide little or no incentive to roll out innovative zero carbon technology.