Japan’s coal power policy reflects the country’s highly insufficient level of ambition to avoid the climate crisis

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Japan’s reported plans to shut a number of coal plants will make little to no difference in emissions in 2030 compared with its current Paris Agreement target: it’s disappointing that the country’s focus remains on coal rather than pursuing an aggressive renewable energy strategy.

On 3 July 2020, Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Hiroshi Kajiyama, announced that Japan would develop concrete plans to phase out inefficient coal-fired power plants. He provided few details, but earlier news reports suggested that the government was considering shutting down or mothballing about 100 out of a total of 110 existing inefficient coal plants by 2030.

While this, if true, is a welcome step towards phasing-out coal, our analysis shows that the reported plan would still see upwards of 30 GW of coal power capacity remaining online in Japan in 2030. This would reduce Japan’s 2030 emissions projections only marginally compared to our previous projections based on current policies. This also means that the reported plan would not take Japan beyond the country’s “Highly insufficient” 2030 climate target (nationally determined contribution, or NDC) in the light of fair contributions to limiting warming to the Paris Agreement’s long-term goal of 1.5°C.